Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, is approaching what analysts term the “Danger Zone” as it gears up for its upcoming halving event. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s price could face a downturn in the weeks leading up to the halving, based on historical trends.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital shared an analysis indicating that BTC typically undergoes price retracements within 14 to 28 days before its halving events. This trend was evident in both the 2016 and 2020 halvings, with price drops of 40% and 20% respectively during these periods.

Bitcoin’s pre-halving trends and forecasts

In January, Rekt Capital made a prediction about Bitcoin’s behavior before its upcoming halving event. They anticipated a surge in value, which they termed a “pre-halving rally,” roughly two months before the halving.This would entail a slight drop, known as a “pre-halving retrace,” occurring about one to three weeks before the halving itself.

Their prediction proved accurate when Bitcoin indeed started to climb in mid-February. Then, in March, it surprised many analysts by surpassing its previous record high from the last cycle, reaching $68,990. This was the first time Bitcoin had achieved such a feat before a halving event.

Looking ahead, the next halving is expected to take place in approximately 33 days, on April 20, as reported by CoinMarketCap. However, Bitcoin’s price has already experienced a decline of 8.5% from its peak of $73,835 on March 14, now standing at $67,537.

CEO optimism despite Potential Bitcoin volatility

Leaders of Crypto.com and Binance are optimistic about Bitcoin’s future. Richard Teng, the CEO of Binance, shared his belief at an event in Bangkok on March 17 that Bitcoin’s value will keep soaring, possibly exceeding $80,000 by year-end. 

He emphasized that Bitcoin’s journey is just beginning, highlighting significant investments by institutional players in cryptocurrency, particularly through new US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) managing a hefty $57 billion, according to Dune Analytics data.

Teng explained that the path to $80,000 won’t be without its twists and turns. With fluctuations likely along the way despite a reduction in supply and sustained demand.

Kris Marszalek, co-founder and CEO of Crypto.com, spoke to CNBC on March 15. He characterized Bitcoin’s recent price dip as a positive adjustment, alleviating market pressure. Marszalek noted a resurgence in Bitcoin’s value similar to late 2020 and early 2021 when it surged from under $20,000 to over $60,000 in three months.

Marszalek noted that current volatility, compared to past cycles, suggests a more stable growth trajectory for BTC. He emphasized Bitcoin’s long-term asset status, predicting steady value increases over time with fewer sudden fluctuations, making it a suitable long-term investment.